China plus ASEAN plus FTA equals East Asian Unification? Not Quite Part II

As discussed in Part I of this series, the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) will be a win-win for the signatories. The agreement will produce greater economies of scales, as it expands trade between members, which will result in an aggregate increase in competitive export products from China and ASEAN. However, it will not foreshadow European-style regional integration, at least not in the near future. The centrifugal force generated by the agreement will not only draw ASEAN closer to China, the regions manufacturing hub, but it will push those states outside the bloc to liberalize their own trade in order to stay competitive. While the United States is generally supportive of ASEAN, it is not in the strategic interest of the U.S. for it to be outside of an Asian economic bloc, especially one that will aid in cementing a strong Chinese leadership position in Southeast Asia. Implementation of this agreement has increased concerns among some analysts that the economic and perhaps, the political center of gravity of the region are shifting away from the United States and toward China.

Over the last 10 years, Southeast Asia has received approximately US$90 billion in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI); it is the third largest market for U.S. exports; and U.S.-ASEAN trade is over US$140 billion (Pitsuwan 2008). Southeast Asia is flush with agricultural and natural resources, and is home to more than half of the world’s annual merchant shipping traffic. Intraregional trade between ASEAN nations still hovers at 25% and in East Asia, it now verges on 55% (Pitsuwan 2008). Over 80% of Japanese and Chinese oil imports travel through these sea-lanes. The geopolitical reality is that due to proximity and economic clout, China’s access to this region will increase. This could not only be detrimental to America’s economic interests, but also represent a strategic threat.

It is in America and ASEANs best interest for the U.S. to not only promote further ASEAN integration, but also establish stronger ties with the region. This will enable ASEAN to serve as a fulcrum between China (and India). America must also realize that China’s increasing penetration into Southeast Asia is not a zero-sum game; the U.S. must be prepared to have a constructive working relationship with China in the region. If the America hopes to balance China’s growing influence it will need a rapprochement with ASEAN that displays a cohesive policy for the organization, but at the same time exploit the diversity of opinion within ASEAN. This will allow the U.S. to advance its policy goals in the region.

China

Over the last decade, China’s resurgent role in Southeast Asia has moved from a situation that generated fear in the region, to one where China is seen as a benign regional leader that plays a constructive role in creating opportunity. China has worked hard to market this image while participating in regional institutions. Its long-term goals are to create greater interdependencies between itself and Southeast Asia through economic incentives, which will give ASEAN a strong stake in China’s success. In this way, ASEAN can serve as insurance against possible U.S., Japanese, Indian containment in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. At the same time, Beijing hopes it can simultaneously reduce the influence of the United States in the South China Sea.

China is increasing its political reach in the region through a series of strong bilateral ties with ASEAN member-states. These links include increased cooperation in regional security (including providing military training), scholarships, and helping to facilitate conflict resolution in the region. China has also promised over US$10 billion in infrastructure, energy, and cultural programs between the countries. China has especially provided special assistance to the lesser developed states of Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.

During the 1997 Asian financial Crisis, America did not provide significant leadership, which left room for China advance itself as a regional leader, often at the expense of Japan. China promised not to devalue its currency, the Renminbi, which helped return stability to the markets, a move much praised in the region. Tokyo worked to provide a competitive framework for an Asian Monetary fund, in an effort to engender long-term stability. Washington repeatedly blocked this endeavor, out of fear it would be froze-out by a potential Asian bloc. Japan and China are still pushing their competing ideas of a greater-East Asia economic sphere, but the main difference between the two nations is that Japan wishes to include Australia, New Zealand, and India in an attempt to minimize the influence of China. Obviously, China is not interested in having none ASEAN and East Asian nations involved.

The idea for an Asian Monetary Fund did not die. In February 2008, the ASEAN+3 forum in Thailand agreed to expand bilateral currency swaps and also enlarge the Chiang Mai Initiative reserve fund in order to enhance regional economic stability in the wake of the current global financial crisis. This goal has prompted ASEAN+3, in coordination with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), to develop an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) as part of a comprehensive Asian Monetary Fund. China has promoted the idea, which has gained wide regional support. China championing this effort appears surprising considering past objections; however, Beijing is supportive of the ACU because it is now able to take a greater leadership role in its management than Japan, whereas it was not in a position to do so 10 years earlier. Although meant to be non-tradable, the ACU would be an indicator of the stability of participating currencies in the region, an Asian version of the European Currency Unit, which was the precursor to the Euro. Due to the wide variance in levels of economic development, the sophistication of financial transfer systems, and the levels of nationalism in the Pacific Rim, a single currency for the region is still unlikely.

What ASEAN Needs

Western analyst had long criticized and even dismissed ASEAN; the common narrative characterized the organization as soft on human rights and democracy, and therefore incapable of taking decisive and constructive action concerning regional issues that were important to the West. Some pasts areas of conflict involved human rights in Myanmar and East Timor, as well as issues of democracy in key members states like Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Part of the problem is that Western observers have not tended to judge ASEAN on its own merit, but instead, based on how it compares to the contemporary European Union (EU). As a result, ASEAN has never been fully respected by the United States.

For their part, not all ASEAN members have been eager to see a stronger American presence in the region. In the 1990’s, former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad called for a greater East Asian forum, which would exclude the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. Many in the region termed this the “caucus without Caucasians”, something Washington successfully nixed, but to only see it rebooted a decade later as ASEAN+3.

At the time, the exclusion of Western nations reflected the regional vogue of “Asian Values”, an ideology trumpeted by Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, along with some political thinkers in Japan. Those who adhered to this ideology espoused that all Asians share distinctive cultural traits that make them fundamentally different from Westerners; therefore, Western political and social norms were not entirely appropriate for Asian societies. Some of these shared Asian values are a preference for social harmony, government paternalism, collectivism over the rights of individuals, respect toward authority, and a greater concern for socio-economic stability over human rights.

By the turn of the century, deeply pragmatic ASEAN states came to the realization that it was impossible to push Western powers out of the region, so it began what was termed, “constructive engagement” with all of them. Under this policy, ASEAN intends to hedge its relationship with the larger powers (China, India, America, and Australia) as an intermediary, reaping the benefits for its member states. Singapore Minister of Foreign Affairs George Yeo, speaking for ASEAN to the press in November 2007, described the importance of America to Southeast Asia: “In short, no major strategic issue in Asia can be resolved without the active participation of the U.S” (Marciel 2008).

America’s Next Move

In the aftermath of 9-11, the bulk of Washington’s foreign policy capacity was consumed by wars in the Middle East and Central Asia. Major initiatives in Southeast Asia fell by the wayside as the primary focus moved to counterterrorism and other security concerns. Even when America’s focus broadened beyond the “War on Terror” into issues of trade, its approach was often ineffectual. The U.S. cannot afford to squander another decade in the region teetering between security issues and weak trade.

The 2005, Joint Vision Statement on the ASEAN-U.S. Enhanced Partnership was not enough to secure America’s future in Southeast Asia; Washington needs to define, create, and utilize more avenues of regular dialogue between itself and ASEAN. Although the U.S. and ASEAN have enjoyed relations for 30 years, no regular annual summits have ever been established. Shoring up the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) is a good place to begin, but it should only be a pass-through for more specialized U.S.-ASEAN talks. The current lack of contact hurts America’s ability to focus its attention on ASEAN states. The U.S. should encourage East/Southeast Asian integration, because it will help to socialize and constrain provocative movements by China. It may also encourage American investors to do greater business in the region, as the various types of independent national laws and regulations are streamlined. Nevertheless, America should also exploit areas of friction between ASEAN and China, as well as the lack of cohesion within ASEAN.

Although China has achieved strong ties with certain members of ASEAN, many nations in the region, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam still maintain a healthy fear of Chinese hegemony and anti-Chinese sentiment in their populations has not yet abated. There have been complaints, by some ASEAN members, that China pushed bilateral FTA negotiations to isolate nations that were not very pro-China, such as Malaysia and Vietnam. Southeast Asian diplomats have also grumbled that China’s influence has hindered consensus building within ASEAN as member nations try to gage Beijing’s potential reaction.

The U.S. has also not closely engaged China-friendly states, such as Myanmar and Cambodia. This is especially true in the case of Myanmar due to human rights concerns, which have resulted in embargoes that have resulted in little political change. The U.S. needs a more pragmatic approach. These nations would be very receptive to American competition for their attention.

The United States and Japan remain the largest investors in the region and the largest ASEAN export receivers. China is not close to eclipsing the U.S. in hard power projection and America is still the largest source of popular culture. With respect to trade, some ASEAN members are not pleased that Early Harvest has allowed China to compete in raw materials, agricultural products, and minerals it did not produce, whereas China will eventually have lower tariff free access to manufacturing markets that ASEAN and Chinese firms were already competing in.

The U.S. has much more work to do on the free trade front. Thus far, America has only one FTA completed agreements, in the nearly 15 years since the U.S. initiated its first Asia-Pacific TIFA, with Singapore in 1991. There are stalled negotiations for FTAs with Thailand and Malaysia, and the Philippines and Indonesia have expressed interest in FTAs. Besides FTAs, policymakers have other eco­nomically significant agreements available, including the expansion of trade and investment framework agree­ments (TIFA) and open skies agreements (OSA). A TIFA is a consultative mechanism for the United States to discuss trade issues, and an OSA creates free markets for aviation services. America has TIFAs with ASEAN, but TIFAs and OSAs have been severely underutilized. Unlike China, the U.S. should work as multilateral as possible with ASEAN to avoid the negative effects of export diversion and encourage ASEAN unity.

Long term, the U.S. could do more in advancing the scope of FTAs and OSAs in Asia. A region-wide agreement would better reduce regional trade barriers, increase U.S.-ASEAN trade, and advance American security interests. The U.S. must stop blocking Japan’s attempts to project a competing vision of Asian unity, because it has not worked. The only result is Japan losing influence to China, which is not in Japan or America’s national interests. Instead, Washington can work with Japan to promote shared interests inside the ASEAN+3 framework, where Japan can serve as a U.S. proxy on specific issues critical to both nations. This would be a similar relationship to what the U.S. enjoys with Britain with respect to the European Union. Currently, Northeast Asia’s economic heavyweights are the world’s last remaining region that lacks an inter-governmental trade bloc, such as ASEAN. The U.S. does not want to find itself outside such a teaming, so it should be working with Japan to create one that is more inclusive. Even if FTAs are not politically feasible, the US should focus on TIFAs for high priority areas of interest.

Lastly, the U.S. should do what it must to gain Japan’s assistance in fighting any attempts for an tradable ACU, because that could limit U.S. government’s ability to finance its larger budget deficits at relatively low interest.

Notes:

As discussed in Part I of this series, the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) will be a win-win for the signatories. The agreement will produce greater economies of scales, as it expands trade between members, which will result in an aggregate increase in competitive export products from China and ASEAN. However, it will not foreshadow European-style regional integration, at least not in the near future. The centrifugal force generated by the agreement will not only draw ASEAN closer to China, the regions manufacturing hub, but it will push those states outside the bloc to liberalize their own trade in order to stay competitive. While the United States is generally supportive of ASEAN, it is not in the strategic interest of the U.S. for it to be outside of an Asian economic bloc, especially one that will aid in cementing a strong Chinese leadership position in Southeast Asia. Implementation of this agreement has increased concerns among some analysts that the economic and perhaps, the political center of gravity of the region are shifting away from the United States and toward China.

Over the last 10 years, Southeast Asia has received approximately US$90 billion in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI); it is the third largest market for U.S. exports; and U.S.-ASEAN trade is over US$140 billion (Pitsuwan 2008). Southeast Asia is flush with agricultural and natural resources, and is home to more than half of the world’s annual merchant shipping traffic. Intraregional trade between ASEAN nations still hovers at 25% and in East Asia, it now verges on 55% (Pitsuwan 2008). Over 80% of Japanese and Chinese oil imports travel through these sea-lanes. The geopolitical reality is that due to proximity and economic clout, China’s access to this region will increase. This could not only be detrimental to America’s economic interests, but also represent a strategic threat.

It is in America and ASEANs best interest for the U.S. to not only promote further ASEAN integration, but also establish stronger ties with the region. This will enable ASEAN to serve as a fulcrum between China (and India). America must also realize that China’s increasing penetration into Southeast Asia is not a zero-sum game; the U.S. must be prepared to have a constructive working relationship with China in the region. If the America hopes to balance China’s growing influence it will need a rapprochement with ASEAN that displays a cohesive policy for the organization, but at the same time exploit the diversity of opinion within ASEAN. This will allow the U.S. to advance its policy goals in the region.

China

Over the last decade, China’s resurgent role in Southeast Asia has moved from a situation that generated fear in the region, to one where China is seen as a benign regional leader that plays a constructive role in creating opportunity. China has worked hard to market this image while participating in regional institutions. Its long-term goals are to create greater interdependencies between itself and Southeast Asia through economic incentives, which will give ASEAN a strong stake in China’s success. In this way, ASEAN can serve as insurance against possible U.S., Japanese, Indian containment in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. At the same time, Beijing hopes it can simultaneously reduce the influence of the United States in the South China Sea.

China is increasing its political reach in the region through a series of strong bilateral ties with ASEAN member-states. These links include increased cooperation in regional security (including providing military training), scholarships, and helping to facilitate conflict resolution in the region. China has also promised over US$10 billion in infrastructure, energy, and cultural programs between the countries. China has especially provided special assistance to the lesser developed states of Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.

During the 1997 Asian financial Crisis, America did not provide significant leadership, which left room for China advance itself as a regional leader, often at the expense of Japan. China promised not to devalue its currency, the Renminbi, which helped return stability to the markets, a move much praised in the region. Tokyo worked to provide a competitive framework for an Asian Monetary fund, in an effort to engender long-term stability. Washington repeatedly blocked this endeavor, out of fear it would be froze-out by a potential Asian bloc. Japan and China are still pushing their competing ideas of a greater-East Asia economic sphere, but the main difference between the two nations is that Japan wishes to include Australia, New Zealand, and India in an attempt to minimize the influence of China. Obviously, China is not interested in having none ASEAN and East Asian nations involved.

The idea for an Asian Monetary Fund did not die. In February 2008, the ASEAN+3 forum in Thailand agreed to expand bilateral currency swaps and also enlarge the Chiang Mai Initiative reserve fund in order to enhance regional economic stability in the wake of the current global financial crisis. This goal has prompted ASEAN+3, in coordination with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), to develop an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) as part of a comprehensive Asian Monetary Fund. China has promoted the idea, which has gained wide regional support. China championing this effort appears surprising considering past objections; however, Beijing is supportive of the ACU because it is now able to take a greater leadership role in its management than Japan, whereas it was not in a position to do so 10 years earlier. Although meant to be non-tradable, the ACU would be an indicator of the stability of participating currencies in the region, an Asian version of the European Currency Unit, which was the precursor to the Euro. Due to the wide variance in levels of economic development, the sophistication of financial transfer systems, and the levels of nationalism in the Pacific Rim, a single currency for the region is still unlikely.

What ASEAN Needs

Western analyst had long criticized and even dismissed ASEAN; the common narrative characterized the organization as soft on human rights and democracy, and therefore incapable of taking decisive and constructive action concerning regional issues that were important to the West. Some pasts areas of conflict involved human rights in Myanmar and East Timor, as well as issues of democracy in key members states like Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Part of the problem is that Western observers have not tended to judge ASEAN on its own merit, but instead, based on how it compares to the contemporary European Union (EU). As a result, ASEAN has never been fully respected by the United States.

For their part, not all ASEAN members have been eager to see a stronger American presence in the region. In the 1990’s, former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad called for a greater East Asian forum, which would exclude the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. Many in the region termed this the “caucus without Caucasians”, something Washington successfully nixed, but to only see it rebooted a decade later as ASEAN+3.

At the time, the exclusion of Western nations reflected the regional vogue of “Asian Values”, an ideology trumpeted by Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, along with some political thinkers in Japan. Those who adhered to this ideology espoused that all Asians share distinctive cultural traits that make them fundamentally different from Westerners; therefore, Western political and social norms were not entirely appropriate for Asian societies. Some of these shared Asian values are a preference for social harmony, government paternalism, collectivism over the rights of individuals, respect toward authority, and a greater concern for socio-economic stability over human rights.

By the turn of the century, deeply pragmatic ASEAN states came to the realization that it was impossible to push Western powers out of the region, so it began what was termed, “constructive engagement” with all of them. Under this policy, ASEAN intends to hedge its relationship with the larger powers (China, India, America, and Australia) as an intermediary, reaping the benefits for its member states. Singapore Minister of Foreign Affairs George Yeo, speaking for ASEAN to the press in November 2007, described the importance of America to Southeast Asia: “In short, no major strategic issue in Asia can be resolved without the active participation of the U.S” (Marciel 2008).

America’s Next Move

In the aftermath of 9-11, the bulk of Washington’s foreign policy capacity was consumed by wars in the Middle East and Central Asia. Major initiatives in Southeast Asia fell by the wayside as the primary focus moved to counterterrorism and other security concerns. Even when America’s focus broadened beyond the “War on Terror” into issues of trade, its approach was often ineffectual. The U.S. cannot afford to squander another decade in the region teetering between security issues and weak trade.

The 2005, Joint Vision Statement on the ASEAN-U.S. Enhanced Partnership was not enough to secure America’s future in Southeast Asia; Washington needs to define, create, and utilize more avenues of regular dialogue between itself and ASEAN. Although the U.S. and ASEAN have enjoyed relations for 30 years, no regular annual summits have ever been established. Shoring up the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) is a good place to begin, but it should only be a pass-through for more specialized U.S.-ASEAN talks. The current lack of contact hurts America’s ability to focus its attention on ASEAN states. The U.S. should encourage East/Southeast Asian integration, because it will help to socialize and constrain provocative movements by China. It may also encourage American investors to do greater business in the region, as the various types of independent national laws and regulations are streamlined. Nevertheless, America should also exploit areas of friction between ASEAN and China, as well as the lack of cohesion within ASEAN.

Although China has achieved strong ties with certain members of ASEAN, many nations in the region, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam still maintain a healthy fear of Chinese hegemony and anti-Chinese sentiment in their populations has not yet abated. There have been complaints, by some ASEAN members, that China pushed bilateral FTA negotiations to isolate nations that were not very pro-China, such as Malaysia and Vietnam. Southeast Asian diplomats have also grumbled that China’s influence has hindered consensus building within ASEAN as member nations try to gage Beijing’s potential reaction.

The U.S. has also not closely engaged China-friendly states, such as Myanmar and Cambodia. This is especially true in the case of Myanmar due to human rights concerns, which have resulted in embargoes that have resulted in little political change. The U.S. needs a more pragmatic approach. These nations would be very receptive to American competition for their attention.

The United States and Japan remain the largest investors in the region and the largest ASEAN export receivers. China is not close to eclipsing the U.S. in hard power projection and America is still the largest source of popular culture. With respect to trade, some ASEAN members are not pleased that Early Harvest has allowed China to compete in raw materials, agricultural products, and minerals it did not produce, whereas China will eventually have lower tariff free access to manufacturing markets that ASEAN and Chinese firms were already competing in.

The U.S. has much more work to do on the free trade front. Thus far, America has only one FTA completed agreements, in the nearly 15 years since the U.S. initiated its first Asia-Pacific TIFA, with Singapore in 1991. There are stalled negotiations for FTAs with Thailand and Malaysia, and the Philippines and Indonesia have expressed interest in FTAs. Besides FTAs, policymakers have other eco­nomically significant agreements available, including the expansion of trade and investment framework agree­ments (TIFA) and open skies agreements (OSA). A TIFA is a consultative mechanism for the United States to discuss trade issues, and an OSA creates free markets for aviation services. America has TIFAs with ASEAN, but TIFAs and OSAs have been severely underutilized. Unlike China, the U.S. should work as multilateral as possible with ASEAN to avoid the negative effects of export diversion and encourage ASEAN unity.

Long term, the U.S. could do more in advancing the scope of FTAs and OSAs in Asia. A region-wide agreement would better reduce regional trade barriers, increase U.S.-ASEAN trade, and advance American security interests. The U.S. must stop blocking Japan’s attempts to project a competing vision of Asian unity, because it has not worked. The only result is Japan losing influence to China, which is not in Japan or America’s national interests. Instead, Washington can work with Japan to promote shared interests inside the ASEAN+3 framework, where Japan can serve as a U.S. proxy on specific issues critical to both nations. This would be a similar relationship to what the U.S. enjoys with Britain with respect to the European Union. Currently, Northeast Asia’s economic heavyweights are the world’s last remaining region that lacks an inter-governmental trade bloc, such as ASEAN. The U.S. does not want to find itself outside such a teaming, so it should be working with Japan to create one that is more inclusive. Even if FTAs are not politically feasible, the US should focus on TIFAs for high priority areas of interest.

Lastly, the U.S. should do what it must to gain Japan’s assistance in fighting any attempts for an tradable ACU, because that could limit U.S. government’s ability to finance its larger budget deficits at relatively low interest.

Notes:

Pitsuwan, Surin. 2008. “Bolstering U.S.-ASEAN Cooperation”

Japan Times Online.

Marciel, Scot A. 2008. “Remarks to Center o Strategic International Studies Meeting

‘U.S. and Southeast Asia: Toward a Strategy for Enhanced Engagement'”

U.S. State Department.

Confirmation Bias

One of the most important things that impacts us in personal, professional, and financial life is an effect called confirmation bias. Put more simply, this is a tendency for people to only seek out information that confirms what they already think. In many cases, people will examine the same information and come to wildly different conclusions because of their internal biases. Naturally, this makes objective thought and analysis extremely difficult to perform since we are not always the best judge of ourselves.

This effect becomes especially dangerous when it enters the financial arena. When evaluating investment strategies, many people (such as Robert Merton and Myron Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management) fail to examine possibilities that lay outside of their theory. Many hedge funds and derivatives traders create highly complex formula’s based on many assumptions that are usually true, but not always true. These financial models typically use large amounts of leverage, and are prone to tremendous losses if market movements do not match the model assumptions. Another iteration of this self-delusion is the tremendous run-up in housing prices that was based on the assumption home prices would never go down. There was ample evidence to indicate that housing prices could not increase forever, but it was completely ignored in favor of self-delusion by the government agencies, financial institutions, and borrowers who perpetuated the financial crisis.

The impact of confirmation bias also enters the political sphere on a regular basis. There are Nobel laureate economists in favor of higher taxes who claim to have evidence in support of their position and Nobel laureate economists in favor of lower taxes who also have evidence in support of their claim. When the government funds research studies, it is not surprising that the results of the study almost always come back confirming the original theory or hypothesis. Other ways that this phenomenon works its way into the political landscape is through metrics that are impossible to prove or disprove. One of the most famous is an ambiguous employment metric of “jobs created or saves”. It is impossible to objectively define a “saved” job, so the intellectual delusion is perpetuated.

The confirmation bias effect has even found its way into the scientific domain, as demonstrated most prominently in the climate science movement. What used to be called “global warming” has now been changed “climate change”. This makes every observation of temperature a “confirmation” of the hypothesis since the climate by its very nature is always changing. It should not come as any sort of surprise that the so-called “consensus” concerning climate change was completely fictional. It only resulted from suppressing voices of dissent and stifling debate so that the self-delusion of confirmation bias could continue without restraint. If the science was so strong, then it should be able to withstand a rigorous debate. If the proponents of the theory are not willing to debate, then it stands to reason that the science is not very strong.

In the end, it is and always will be extremely difficult to be objective. As astute individuals, we must learn to recognize the impacts of confirmation bias in ourselves and in the world around us. Since most of us do not possess the ability to change the world, we must squarely focus on the things that we do have the power to change… namely ourselves. When making an important decision, it is imperative to ‘step back’ and determine whether there is something we haven’t thought of that could squash our plans. By actively avoiding the bias of confirmation, it will help us to make more informed decisions and live a more fulfilled life.

China and the Global Recession – Part 1 – The Domestic Situation

The consensus of mainstream China analysts is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a unified entity that is destined to guide China into a new golden where it will enjoy global superpower status. This sanguine narrative maybe challenged as the current global economic recession has served to elucidate the genuine fragility of China’s political economy. Stability in the immediate future, let alone, decades from the present is not a fact to be taken for granted, but a likely possibility to be continuously observed and evaluated.

The Chinese leadership is less of a cohesive organism than a mixture of overlapping and competing regional, ideological, and institutional interests. This leaves China vulnerable to conflict. The glue that binds the various CCP factions and the monied elites is a vast patronage system made possible by 20 years of unprecedented economic growth, no Maoism or a constitutional “balance of powers”. The Chinese elite are conscious of this. Even President Hu Jintao recognized the importance of various factions to maintaining national stability by designating two possible successors from divergent ideological perspectives, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The CCP has also been touting the phrase “zhengdi tuandui” (team of rivals) in the media, in reference to political cooperation, which seem to be part of President Hu’s larger goal of creating a “Harmonious Society”. China’s ability to realize this harmony is heavily dependent on the financial liquidity that feeds its “Leviathan”.

Most sources will site China as the third largest economy in the world, just behind Japan; however, according to the World Bank and IMF (2007 figures), China has the world’s second largest economy, if Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The PRC (People’s Republic of China) has $1.9 trillion USD in foreign exchange reserves, which provides it with a measure of security against the current global recession.

Unlike the world’s two largest economies, America and Japan, China will likely avoid a domestic recession, but it has not escaped unscathed. From October to December last year, a collapse in exports only exacerbated the slowdown in China’s growth already occurring since January 2008. The latter was actually purposely created by the implementation of domestic banking policies intended to fight inflation. By the 4th quarter of 2008 growth had slowed to a meager 6.8 percent, and the Chinese stock market had also lost 65 percent of its value (roughly $3 trillion USD).

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, recently made the optimistic prediction, that despite the economic downturn, China will see an 8 percent economic growth rate in 2009. Even an 8 percent growth rate would still fall under the decade average of 11 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), being less assured, projected China’s 2009 growth at just 6.7 percent. It should be remembered that Chinese figures should always be viewed with healthy skepticism due to weaknesses in data collection and ambitious local officials seeking to aggrandize themselves before their superiors. Counterintuitively, some analyst actually believes, overall, China routinely understates growth to avoid the appearance of an economic bubble.

It is likely that the source of Wen’s confidence is the Chinese government’s proposed stimulus plan and the current state of the banking system. Chinese banks have limited international exposure; being less integrated, they were not as affected by the financial crisis. The PRC’s $584 billion USD (~4 trillion Yuan) stimulus package is roughly 6% of its total GDP. The package will focus on training migrant workers, R&D and improving infrastructure. There is also a special emphasis placed on improving domestic companies’ international competitiveness by streamlining the approval process for these companies to make foreign acquisitions, especially in automotives; textiles; energy; electronics and machinery sectors.

China’s banks are funding this corporate expansion by lending at a higher rate than at any time within the last year. It is expected that Chinese corporate investment of $16.3 billion last year could double this year. Globally the value of mergers and acquisitions has dropped by over 35%. Chinese companies have particularly focused on buying up billions of dollars in strategic natural resource assets in Iran, Brazil, Venezuela, and France. The Chinese government has used loans in Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela to ensure state owned energy companies secure deals. For example, China will supply up to $25 billion in loans to Russia in exchange for long term deals for the China National Petroleum Corporation. This will likely spur further concerns over future availability and price of these resources in nations that are in competition for them.

This is a sea-change in activity considering the attitude of the CCP in 2007. In that year, the CCP established credit quotas that domestic banks were subject to and they were continually adjusted upwards by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, as inflation became a significant concern. Exports grew only 9.4 percent for 2008 a downward trend from the decade’s average of 20 per cent. Export growth in January 2009 was -17.5 percent, industrial production also dropped. After the conditions of the last two years, the state-owned banks (SOBs) are quite willing to follow the stimulus mandate to increase lending and they also cannot now be held responsible for future nonperforming loans. Much of the stimulus money will be cycled through the banks and loaned to State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and local governments. The CCP Standing Committee, partially in response to current and anticipated public pressure, have already made vague comments about the need for more transparency in how the stimulus package is spent, to head off corruption that could lead to public outrage.

China’s financial liquidity is largely a result of its people’s exceptionally high savings rate; China’s households save nearly 25% of their disposable, although they get low or even negative rates of return from the banks and financial markets. The recent decrease in exports has inversely effected employment, making the situation of the most vulnerable citizens precarious. The Asian Development Bank has found that China has one of Asia’s highest income inequality rates. In 2004, the combined income of the richest 20 percent being 11.4 times the aggregate income of the poorest 20 percent. These numbers have gotten progressively worse every year since. China has been trying to grow its domestic market, but consumption was low before the global recession and savings high due to the lack of social safety nets. There are three year plan to provide universal health care and education. Currently, Chinese consumer spending accounts for only 35 percent of China’s GDP, whereas in America it is two-thirds.

By February of 2009, there were 20 million unemployed migrant workers, which was double the estimate of December 2008; and an additional 6 to 7 million low skilled rural residents are expected to join the migrant workforce, as many multinationals are cutting back or shutting down factories. For the employed, raises in salary have fallen for the first time in 4 years. The only upshot is that wage deflation somewhat halts China’s recent loss in price competitiveness regional revivals, such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Cambodia.

There has been much talk in the Western media over the last year concerning Chinese government crackdowns on ethnic minorities in the provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet, but this behavior is not isolated to minorities on the periphery of China Proper; to the contrary, the majority of these actions seems to be in response to the uptick in “mass incidents” in Han majority areas.

The Chinese government has hired more than 40,000 state employees to police the 250 million Chinese that are on the internet in an effort known as the “Golden Shield Project”. Thousands of websites have been banned or censored and even text messages have been filtered. Many analysts supposed the increase in arrest and crackdowns were temporary, due to sensitivity around the Olympics Games, but this has proven incorrect. The crackdowns are directed at any criticism of the government that could cause poplar discontent, such as the “Tainted Milk Scandal” and last springs’ Sichuan Earthquakes, as well as any talk of democracy, Taiwan, Tibet, and other such contentious issues. It maybe that this is a two pronged approach, as Premier Wen, in early March, made his first internet address to the online Chinese community to encourage controlled discussion as an alternative to citizens possibly taking to the streets of China’s major cities.

The Chinese government has not published official figures on “mass incidents”, a CCP term for riots; demonstrations; and protests since 2004. In that year 74,000 incidents were recorded, a 28% change over the previous year. Foreign analysts, drawing on Chinese sources, estimated the 2005 figure to have been 80,000-85,000. Considering the trend line, starting from 1993, there is no reason to think the number of incidents has not increased at the historic average of 20% a year. The weak performance of the PAP in the pre-Olympic riots in Tibet, which resulted in the PAP forces reportedly losing control of the situation and forcing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to become involved, surely caused alarm inside the CCP and the military. In January 2009, President Hu gave an ominous warning that the People’s Armed Police (PAP), that they will face difficult challenges ahead.

There has also been an increase in the number of “black houses,” unofficial jails for citizens that exercise their right to petition the national government in Beijing, a last desperate attempt to addresses grievances with provincial officials peacefully. The Chinese government denies the existence of these jails, but citizens are being abducted off the street, usually at the behest of local party cadre, in or in route to Beijing, to prevent them from filing embarrassing appeals. The state media has reported that 10 million such petitions have been filed in the last five years on complaints as diverse as unjust taxation, illegal land seizures and unpaid wages.

The fundamentals of the Chinese economy may be strong, but they are not “harmonious”. The history of China is instructive; in that, most revolutions in China have come from rural areas in bad economic times when the central government is seen as impotent, having lost the “Mandate of Heaven”. This “right of rebellion” against an unjust or ineffective rule has been a part of Chinese political philosophy since the Zhou Dynasty (1045 BC to 256 BC). The CCP is acutely aware of this history; its own origins lie in a rural populist movement led by a charismatic leader against a corrupt and incompetent regime. The CCP has also been a diligent study of how perestroika and glasnost led to the fall of the Soviet Communist Party.

The current global economic crisis has revealed significant cracks in China’s political and economic system. Harmony will be heavily dependent on the length of the global downturn and how adaptive and not reactive the CCP is to changing circumstances. It will also be contingent upon if the CCP earnestly intends to make substantive movements toward greater freedom of speech, tort reform, restraining graft and banking reform. If recent overture from the party elites are just a guise designed to ride out any potential threats to party power by strengthening security forces and drawing out potential enemies, this could be catastrophic, especially if the party’s patronage system’s life-blood does indeed dry up, corruption could increase in tandem with poverty. These twin forces would disproportionately strike rural areas, where most Chinese still live. In this situation the CCP’s “Great Wall” against the people will be the security forces. Due to the fractious nature of Chinese politics, it is quite possible that some members of the elite, especially of the tuanpai (populist faction) or even the military, could exploit this situation to their own political advantage. They could use populist appeals targeted to the urban poor and rural peasants to weaken their rivals. Hopefully the global economic downturn will be short lived or those who keep predicting China’s inevitable success will have to hedge their bets on the CCP reforming itself in a crisis. Historically, power does not willingly concede when under threat.

By Collin Spears, Chief Foreign Policy Correspondent,
Washington D.C. Bureau

caseymeekhof.cf casinoguideaustralia.cf cateringsarasota.cf cegelectricmotors.cf cellularnewyork.cf centre-ressource.cf centurysmallbizpa.cf cetemax.cf cga-exchange.cf chinarockventures.cf e-b2bbiz.cf e-billers.cf e-kelloggs.cf ecebil.cf eclipsesafari.cf donlydick.cf donnvickrey.cf donshriver.cf dragon-walker.cf dragonblasterskeletor.cf drbhealthy.cf drgaleod.cf drinkingwateraustralia.cf drugups.cf ductingaustralia.cf dynastyfinejewelry.cf dyson-ceramics.cf ecoledekinesitherapie.cf edticket.cf ehomesbayarea.cf ejs-tr.cf ekelloggs.cf electrichybridvehicles.cf elliott-it.cf elmhurstmortgage.cf energnosis.cf castlescrownand.cf factsverlag.cf fargohasjobs.cf livingandfashion.cf fastestguninthewest.cf fencesofcolorado.cf filingaustralia.cf firebrigadesaustralia.cf fitzkeescandies.cf flarecheck.cf fmxnet.cf footfetishplex.cf formexwatches.cf fortworthsinglesonline.cf gajgemart.cf galaxymatch.cf galvanisingaustralia.cf garagesbygeorge.cf gatewayfordmercury.cf gaugesaustralia.cf gaymenwanted.cf geneparts.cf geofshives.cf getawayspray.cf hadakon.cf hanakahuna.cf hartfordpho.cf harwellenergy.cf hawkeyefordmerc.cf hawkeyepackaging.cf hawrivermedia.cf hbsofcolorado.cf hegyienterprises.cf helensawley.cf icebil.cf ideascreatedbymrssims.cf idotmenu.cf iesinc-environmental.cf iesoccer.cf igf-pro.cf iglesiasdecristo.cf ilgiocolotto.cf iltagliasoldi.cf imaginimages.cf naardcreek.cf nancyduhon.cf nassaucountylawfirm.cf nationalcardio.cf nationscapitalhotels.cf ndm-girls-softball.cf netauctionz.cf netrevelations.cf newdrugsonline.cf newhavenhomes-illinois.cf j-harper.cf jacquisbags.cf jadecoastjewels.cf jamescrystal.cf janssen-home.cf jerich01.cf jimgreenhaw.cf jinjufashion.cf jkacartoons.cf jlm-ezorder.cf joeistre.cf johnkennedyflm.cf joyeriasterling.cf junewiener.cf justcruiseandtravel.cf kaosmanager.cf karrasspurchasing.cf kijksjop.cf kingrichardcanvas.cf kingrichardupholstery.cf kissthegirlproductions.cf krk-inc.cf l-ateliermontparnasse.cf lanottedihalloween.cf lavateria.cf leesburgapts.cf linco-comms.cf linuxembed.cf linuxlot.cf liquidfillingsystems.cf littlefriendmpg.cf ljmarine.cf ln2cryo.cf lonecypressimporters.cf ltg-lasertech.cf mackinacmall.cf mailordermaster.cf man-e-faces.cf mandarine-tours.cf manningcooper.cf oberlanderdesign.cf obg-1.cf officealternativesinc.cf oioonline.cf ojthelp.cf omni-hitech.cf omnihitech.cf onsiteseminar.cf optima-capital.cf optimumhealthent.cf oracodent.cf outsideindev.cf owingsdeweyfineart.cf p-j-gailor.cf pangiatech.cf parfumsbleu.cf pccscards.cf peterpuget.cf photogalleryusa.cf picniconthegrass.cf pietechdev.cf pirineos-descubierta.cf pittsfordmercury.cf plandecoroneskronplatz.cf playandscience.cf polyphonypress.cf portandnuts.cf potterynorthwest.cf premieredentistry.cf priestamistadihartley.cf naxlifeboe.ga palxladasboe.ga panasiansboe.ga photodiaryofmaiboe.ga pmdigiscrapboe.ga pbjdreamertes.cf setiacandraboe.ga snapxapboe.ga skyxtboe.ga syxiaboe.ga shimmerpboe.ga tutxbookboe.ga thexbirdboe.ga thexrtyboe.ga womanlynboe.ga watetrboe.ga wongkokwahboe.ga aprubornboe.ga chunglernboe.ga debfongboe.ga mistergrassroots.ga frankwjamestes.cf thattes.cf christian-with-a-viewtes.cf givemty01tes.cf rantinmantes.cf lahmestes.cf drzeusflestes.cf danpaigetes.cf theblogproftes.cf examinelifetes.cf marcvsthebardtes.cf totus-tuustes.cf louiseyvettetes.cf charlottediocesetes.cf pratholictes.cf fokraisetes.cf caentes.cf cadonertes.cf fieldechotes.cf fororytes.cf fidfensortes.cf evancismtes.cf rcpdytes.cf emkhtes.cf covesnowtes.cf maegrowatchtes.cf thnrighttes.cf zabblogtes.cf armanadiantes.cf onerttleholetes.cf randootismtes.cf yeoldfurttes.cf randoriotismtes.cf thssiantes.cf thepttes.cf whitoodstes.cf csatchtes.cf rubrsblogtes.cf jimagotes.cf boedpmq.cf blactes.cf curlyautes.cf mytuventuretes.cf coppersblogtes.cf endianates.cf viewsquadcartes.cf scottcamworldtes.cf northrmstes.cf ajouriencytes.cf blog-in-the-boxtes.cf callejonextranotes.cf fathastardtes.cf healichtes.cf emschick9tes.cf acieagrktes.cf marienadetes.cf sluctes.cf philpierrepaul.cf sarahannephotography.cf cruelvirgin.cf suziriot.cf afroamazon.cf amitpatty.cf johannastan.cf smugmonkey.cf pornfortroops.cf mistergrassroots.cf ayianaflicka.cf stetoriesson.ga thendahlsson.ga vestfeson.ga whattsson.ga txsphensson.ga ashadtayson.ga lromeyson.ga tuerecrewson.ga banagsson.ga onlwinydayson.ga akijustakissson.ga bluesndigoson.ga dabaoghson.ga jacraottageson.ga judytoooteson.ga medilladyson.ga prettadyson.ga shelcrapbokson.ga thegiooseson.ga twohsson.ga brignson.ga crwinson.ga jerurtisson.ga clerson.ga jordwyson.ga johnudsenson.ga lukereallson.ga simmrnceson.ga realertsson.ga krismpbellson.ga prinkwpickleson.ga hewionsson.ga wtiepiepnaison.ga buncandanceson.ga placefortwiggsson.ga ywayofthemoonson.ga olkcityson.ga aylabdesignson.ga ethretrodreamsson.ga arrwterson.ga edlewrneson.ga estesdiasson.ga lrikakullenbergson.ga tudiokandyson.ga elenegeorgetson.ga cmcmcson.ga hewollieblogson.ga ricafusteroson.ga oxlieson.ga otickraftkutiesson.ga decalcomanieson.ga psanddandiesson.ga killerbeestingson.ga ebookdesignersson.ga wyourconjurerson.ga sntfilusegendson.ga bavetbavetteson.ga panvariosson.ga eamoymentason.ga dosdelparaisoson.ga doesnohedogson.ga vahousingson.ga qowqqenson.ga ooawurooson.ga fraqmesson.ga tqblogson.ga maiwaqtson.ga hiewmaison.ga lacowdepilyson.ga film-foodson.ga cwinqson.ga cowqtowson.ga coowkeqson.ga bakewqcratchson.ga bjyse.cf bjyoue.cf bjymtoe.cf bjyoiie.cf bjysiblymoree.cf bjybrathe.cf bjypeie.cf bjyvegee.cf bjyaelye.cf bjydade.cf bjyfilmfoode.cf bjyvreklese.cf bjythelsewifee.cf bjyookese.cf bjyoyswe.cf bjybiipitye.cf oq88son.ga apanqlesson.ga myjaqimeson.ga asianqmaniason.ga pyramidcatson.ga baqineson.ga blanq6son.ga raiqboson.ga usiqsmarsson.ga andqgson.ga ashnoobson.ga ebulandsandhomesson.ga ruelvirginson.ga enqtronicsson.ga roqeson.ga nlightenedbitsson.ga verytzzonson.ga racie04son.ga anxiousheart19son.ga olycutenessson.ga nfraspeed23son.ga nspiredmumof2son.ga isxsmemoirsson.ga isaxd08son.ga ourxmiason.ga yndxson.ga oxortsson.ga ossimossison.ga yswittoothson.ga dxcoson.ga buttefflyliyenson.ga chunglernson.ga debfongson.ga doryatologyson.ga eeflinson.ga fluttersawayson.ga jeqason.ga joanv11son.ga lin-seyson.ga julyfishtailson.ga justmilkson.ga memovvgaijinson.ga mivtleeson.ga mycvsofdson.ga gyangminson.ga pavwersson.ga arrothangusson.ga eflinson.ga hveson.ga evupzson.ga ovtoozson.ga tevvstson.ga sanvrson.ga svpealson.ga eccwson.ga parescottson.ga teblueboarson.ga occqnashvilleson.ga rqootson.ga saiqcurtson.ga shqugson.ga stqpherson.ga weiqngtalesson.ga padqtyson.ga jointstrikeweaselson.ga pateatiseson.ga koanson.ga obusticeson.ga trngshoesson.ga nealjudischson.ga soeticsson.ga relapsedcatholicson.ga scottersonlineson.ga johnheardson.ga mommentaryson.ga christiaviewson.ga pastorhightowerson.ga examnelifeson.ga zipycatholicson.ga cowbikeriderson.ga chophobistson.ga cordeliashoesson.ga marcvsthebardson.ga rcpstudyson.ga totus-tuusson.ga louiseyvetteson.ga mommentariesson.ga cathoftheweisson.ga ratholicson.ga abncerson.ga gatohyson.ga pixfedson.ga subjctifyson.ga lizshoeson.ga alihakesson.ga suwinson.ga elinannson.ga kurawreson.ga tellytodayson.ga uredyuson.ga hintonteriorsson.ga amanwamingson.ga sarahiftson.ga sognisrrisison.ga thetrwblogson.ga craftcymelbourneson.ga theshbugson.ga iaotaydesignsson.ga eoratedlifeson.ga omaloftson.ga lbohemmeson.ga festherleeson.ga esigundercoverson.ga rewchannelson.ga icwarchson.ga iwaniesueson.ga otwttodayson.ga aperocketson.ga urplejanson.ga ohiehensonson.ga ecetaslianxioson.ga ntreowerotsson.ga argwarqueson.ga enqresason.ga entafqesason.ga amelarecmiliasson.ga troqson.ga mtqgoricarson.ga onzqson.ga elynnredtearsson.ga kotqason.ga creatqdeson.ga ipduffyson.ga meinteriordesignsson.ga ailartsgalleriesson.ga urkmutfagison.ga cblogcommunityson.ga ucceqrketingson.ga rooklqdson.ga ecstateofgreenson.ga edstuybananason.ga inbahyahson.ga umpiszsharingson.ga ukasukifarason.ga ursqgetherson.ga tolqimeson.ga nimasivson.ga daybreakson.ga nimqovieson.ga dqgyson.ga axlifeson.ga dixonson.ga gexson.ga ldlxgazineson.ga scaxvgson.ga palxladasson.ga pnasiansson.ga photodiaryofmaison.ga mdigiscrapson.ga setiacandrason.ga secondsthoughtson.ga shycvson.ga shimerpson.ga sapxapson.ga hqopgeson.ga kyxtson.ga yxiason.ga tnnylson.ga thexrtyson.ga thexhaleson.ga switxtsson.ga hexbirdson.ga raffxpson.ga utxbookson.ga ackymomson.ga atetrson.ga omanlynson.ga ongkokwahson.ga oopslifeson.ga aprubornson.ga lahmesson.ga fokraiseson.ga tqrson.ga caenson.ga caonerson.ga fidfensorson.ga fooryson.ga evancismson.ga stanicsson.ga reasairedson.ga rcpdyson.ga emkson.ga stshamson.ga covesnowson.ga maegrowatchson.ga myhepnerson.ga thnrightson.ga amryson.ga zabblogson.ga claplaceson.ga theptson.ga danpaigeson.ga armanadianson.ga fieldechoson.ga onerttleholeson.ga laniusson.ga randoriotismson.ga yeoldfurtson.ga randootismson.ga thssianson.ga givemty01son.ga whitoodsson.ga fireamericason.ga csatchson.ga rubrsblogson.ga wattsrson.ga myrnblogson.ga jimagoson.ga coppersblogson.ga frankwjamesson.ga thatson.ga endianason.ga theblogprofson.ga bulletfliesson.ga ordinaryavggalson.ga secondsmatterson.ga jimshywolfson.ga dirtson.ga viewsquadcarson.ga scottcamworldson.ga northrmsson.ga ajouriencyson.ga blogbxson.ga pbjdemerson.ga thebigditzson.ga callejoextranoson.ga tunetepiccoloson.ga dlhjson.ga drzeusflesson.ga fathasardson.ga healihson.ga mytuvetureson.ga iamdingwaterson.ga reenacson.ga curlyason.ga emschick9son.ga rantinanson.ga reidenceson.ga acieagrkson.ga blacson.ga duehicson.ga marienadeson.ga slucson.ga imustadmitson.ga thientson.ga iaouson.ga disjohnson.ga fingyorificeson.ga urostreamson.ga buredayson.ga comedianson.ga consejoson.ga dclawdentson.ga haveopiiltravelson.ga danclearyson.ga mellowveloson.ga x-raysetupandbeyondson.ga stickofsinson.ga firstlastalwaysson.ga lilbucnerson.ga msmyson.ga undlemmason.ga advocareson.ga dddigestson.ga disealistson.ga barbadflyson.ga booroomson.ga nursesomedayson.ga studentnursejackson.ga thekkrisson.ga traumadivason.ga trginnersson.ga ang6666son.ga baltason.ga biggrayson.ga consvessuckson.ga dodosvilleson.ga nightgefruitson.ga polusson.ga polationsson.ga doxeesson.ga thionson.ga truenoozson.ga alsnotavailableson.ga ambulancommyson.ga oveinationson.ga texas4palinson.ga kenademicson.ga madmikesamericason.ga neonursechicson.ga leslietstexasson.ga rideyourbicycleson.ga uglybikeson.ga catadjusterson.ga pediatricsnowson.ga theclienceson.ga allissentson.ga poofgersson.ga berssellson.ga joiaselson.ga midlawson.ga muslicasson.ga moghtwarsson.ga burketokirkson.ga dialectikson.ga medyondson.ga nomiddleson.ga trooperyorkson.ga fivetomatoesson.ga olyostson.ga spiritedmotionsson.ga dearraedson.ga gedanditson.ga eurotason.ga muslimpunditson.ga politusson.ga cressonsson.ga themmclubson.ga plasticgangsterson.ga mthollywoodson.ga photoncourier1son.ga axegrinderson.ga communiolictson.ga fattotheworldson.ga angloradicalson.ga soligloriason.ga hermdownunderson.ga hillhenorthson.ga reamoramason.ga mwcobson.ga rebeccastaggsson.ga emberdaysson.ga sufferowsson.ga thetalismson.ga aruminationsson.ga closedcafeteriason.ga prolifeimagesson.ga rawwandererson.ga deferuthson.ga anathemasitblogson.ga lastpapistson.ga plinypostsson.ga godsviewofbloodson.ga cherubim77son.ga pensamidason.ga revdmarkstevensson.ga toshunkason.ga voxstefanison.ga bumpinristson.ga tartansplaceson.ga clutahson.ga tobiasdannason.ga mirisblogson.ga athanasiuscmson.ga notesmentson.ga gordansplaceson.ga kjsullison.ga reformeson.ga refarretson.ga stuholarson.ga serreson.ga pensaibertadson.ga revesson.ga robertobastidason.ga defurrowsson.ga gityandwaggeryson.ga lostgnreson.ga leftandjesusson.ga alcatson.ga pressbissson.ga nwrepublicanson.ga retessayistson.ga bubtrackingson.ga thtoracleson.ga nngbubbleson.ga ubbleblogson.ga bjymotoye.cf bjynowninge.cf bjysmaloguee.cf bjyhaitehippye.cf bjystoodqe.cf bjyofeaesundaye.cf bjykarunuie.cf bjymyluvise.cf bjymyonmo.cf bjyvintsldtase.cf bjyquiandye.cf bjystatetalese.cf bjybritdesigne.cf bjyriellakirstine.cf bjyjergubjise.cf bjyjordemilye.cf bjyjoyknudsene.cf bjyluenhalle.cf bjysimrenee.cf bjyrealrobebje.cf bjysbjytoriese.cf bjythendahlse.cf bjyvestlifee.cf bjywhideountse.cf bjytxstephense.cf bjyashandtaye.cf bjylromneye.cf bjytuerperewe.cf bjybangbagse.cf bjyodydaye.cf bjyakstakisse.cf bjybluesindigoe.cf bjydabaloghe.cf bjyjaranottagee.cf bjyjaypatotee.cf bjymedladye.cf bjyprettyl.cf bjyshoke.cf bjythdedmoosee.cf bjytwose.cf ttykbjineampbelle.cf bjygatohye.cf gtypifeede.cf utysfye.cf utylizhoee.cf utyalsupakese.cf bjysumdinge.cf bjyelminne.cf bjykurakoree.cf bjytellyoutodaye.cf bjyhineriorse.cf bjyaysminge.cf bjysarahshifte.cf bjysorrisie.cf bjythetvelbloge.cf bjyraflbournee.cf bjytheshopbuge.cf bjyiaoesignse.cf bjydeoratedlifee.cf bjyfromalofte.cf bjylabohemmee.cf bjyofestherleee.cf bjydesderovere.cf bjyreatyhannele.cf bjymihearhe.cf bjymissiesuee.cf bjynodaye.cf bjypaperokete.cf bjypurplejane.cf bjyehone.cf bjysiklee.cf bjytinsionse.cf bjynaie.cf bjyadanee.cf bjyaoriggse.cf bjybthemoone.cf bjyfitye.cf bjytlaesigne.cf bjybeodreamse.cf bjybzdj.cf bjydpkq.cf bjydbzh.cf bjyfhgr.cf bjyhghw.cf bjygpjz.cf bjykfyn.cf bjykmpz.cf bjylwlk.cf bjymtpq.cf bjynckj.cf bjynswd.cf bjynxfh.cf bjynydr.cf bjyqbtw.cf bjyqcln.cf bjyrbfb.cf bjyrndz.cf bjyrrgj.cf bjyrxxd.cf bjysrhg.cf bjytblr.cf bjytbpd.cf bjytwwz.cf bjytzwn.cf bjyzbym.cf bjyzcfw.cf bjyzftl.cf bjyghpm.cf bjyzkzf.cf bjyptpw.cf bjyjcdx.cf bjyystj.cf bjyfglx.cf bjytxxr.cf bjynzsb.cf bjyfgmd.cf bjyrbbf.cf bjymxdh.cf bjydpmq.cf bjyknwh.cf dejqtol.cf oehztol.cf waxhtol.cf kseutol.cf glqutol.cf fjogtol.cf gdkvtol.cf fjqetol.cf axfotol.cf uwawtol.cf fqmvtol.cf cuoktol.cf noumtol.cf wxuutol.cf hntitol.cf hidmtol.cf ficbtol.cf itxetol.cf rlemtol.cf qhadtol.cf cfjetol.cf qqketol.cf vvzhtol.cf huhrtol.cf laoitol.cf puootol.cf yupgtol.cf daektol.cf txaktol.cf gvzktol.cf bvhltol.cf vujvtol.cf zdjztol.cf odyetol.cf oeogtol.cf kdustol.cf jvzstol.cf eokhtol.cf bkjotol.cf gpeztol.cf dbzotol.cf lrtstol.cf lyvotol.cf vfhytol.cf pwrotol.cf imvstol.cf idagtol.cf jnhatol.cf egkrtol.cf hedwtol.cf xnowtol.cf pdawtol.cf oujstol.cf knqntol.cf klhqtol.cf qstftol.cf chkhtol.cf tmnjtol.cf utwitol.cf zvsntol.cf lpkhtol.cf pmxctol.cf qjyttol.cf jqrytol.cf zrhutol.cf avtetol.cf vvywtol.cf rpzstol.cf ancbtol.cf uibltol.cf xwcptol.cf tqmgtol.cf cwygtol.cf dwqytol.cf podvtol.cf dpkftol.cf sfwntol.cf pwydtol.cf znmytol.cf rysltol.cf hybotol.cf nmnktol.cf phvctol.cf qybytol.cf xnndtol.cf zkxetol.cf ezewtol.cf ixqptol.cf dhgytol.cf kjvhtol.cf mtqmtol.cf qkirtol.cf ndphtol.cf zrrstol.cf obahtol.cf rlbhtol.cf hyzqtol.cf gjxwtol.cf qnbctol.cf zzcytol.cf mldktol.cf brpdtol.cf mwljtol.cf rzyjtol.cf bthxtol.cf yrthtol.cf sgpmtol.cf xnqrtol.cf xlzttol.cf zcgbtol.cf wbtztol.cf gykbtol.cf mlggtol.cf pwybtol.cf nqgftol.cf xddytol.cf gylltol.cf tfzftol.cf jhqqtol.cf znnmtol.cf mcdztol.cf mnywtol.cf cqwstol.cf bslwtol.cf bdyxtol.cf bwjjtol.cf oufktol.cf hnjhtol.cf dmjrtol.cf vvmdtol.cf hfzptol.cf whnjtol.cf dlzttol.cf jnqrtol.cf ymfftol.cf obxxtol.cf xayvtol.cf bvuwtol.cf bwivtol.cf ywdztol.cf kxnltol.cf xdqttol.cf xctntol.cf djuwtol.cf uotctol.cf ewmktol.cf xjxxtol.cf jnsptol.cf czkytol.cf phise.cf phioue.cf phimtoe.cf phioiie.cf phipeie.cf phiaelye.cf phifilmfoode.cf phibrathe.cf phiookese.cf phioyswe.cf phidade.cf phivreklese.cf phibiipitye.cf chonckj.cf chonswd.cf chonxfh.cf chonydr.cf choqbtw.cf choqcln.cf chorbfb.cf chodnwm.cf chofhph.cf chobnxn.cf chohrxn.cf choxdxr.cf chotylj.cf chodmrn.cf chodypf.cf chognfl.cf chrgnf.cf realestate-luberon.cf refineriesaustralia.cf resortareahomes.cf rethorstrealestate.cf royalcanadamint.cf rocklincentral.cf rockyallenshowgram.cf roger4homes.cf romeincometax.cf romeincometaxservice.cf sandiegobusinessevents.cf sanidadhambiental.cf schlichting-exc.cf roofntuff.cf rosecityrun.cf rotaryliquidfillers.cf ringsonyourfingers.cf rtomaselli.cf rutlandcountyboardofrealtors.cf reporterofficeproducts.cf sciencedirectonsite.cf seatradetransport.cf serasquilts.cf signsbyshawn.cf sodablastmonkey.cf softwarecommitments.cf rbsoundtrack.cf remax-wi.cf sergenaked.cf seven-studios.cf dispatchesfromnihilon.cf nufluv.cf bjyjzdm.cf bjyntsn.cf bjydpsz.cf bjydmzt.cf bjyyswk.cf bjyfxbs.cf bjymhjs.cf bjypdxr.cf bjydcjp.cf bjypzsf.cf bjytzhm.cf bjyxrln.cf bjymczf.cf bjydzpy.cf bjyqnfl.cf bjypshl.cf bjyzfzj.cf bjywpqr.cf bjygngj.cf bjylnqr.cf bjyhwyr.cf bjydnjn.cf bjywblj.cf bjyrbsq.cf phithelsewifee.cf phisiblymoree.cf phivegee.cf phimotoye.cf bjymnjs.cf bjysqxr.cf bjyntxn.cf bjygnkf.cf bjylcnt.cf bjylcmj.cf bjyxrwn.cf bjymnkp.cf bjygnby.cf bjygymr.cf bjyybjn.cf bjydnwm.cf bjyfhph.cf bjybnxn.cf bjyhrxn.cf bjyxdxr.cf bjytylj.cf bjydmrn.cf bjydypf.cf bjygnfl.cf phinowninge.cf phismaloguee.cf phihaitehippye.cf phistoodqe.cf phiofeaesundaye.cf phikarunuie.cf phimyluvise.cf phimyonmo.cf phivintsldtase.cf phiquiandye.cf agrandarelpene24.eu chorndz.cf chorrgj.cf chorxxd.cf chosrhg.cf chotblr.cf chotbpd.cf chotwwz.cf chotzwn.cf chozbym.cf chozcfw.cf chozftl.cf choghpm.cf chozkzf.cf choptpw.cf chojcdx.cf chofgmd.cf choystj.cf phidnwm.cf phifhph.cf phibnxn.cf phihrxn.cf phixdxr.cf phitylj.cf phidmrn.cf phidypf.cf phignfl.cf chofglx.cf chotxxr.cf chonzsb.cf chorbbf.cf phistatetalese.cf phibritdesigne.cf phiriellakirstine.cf phijergurtise.cf phijordemilye.cf phijoyknudsene.cf philuenhalle.cf phisimrenee.cf phirealroberte.cf phisphitoriese.cf phithendahlse.cf phivestlifee.cf phiwhideountse.cf phitxstephense.cf philromneye.cf phituerperewe.cf phibangbagse.cf phiodydaye.cf phiakstakisse.cf phibluesindigoe.cf phidabaloghe.cf phijaranottagee.cf phijaypatotee.cf phimedladye.cf phiprettyl.cf phishoke.cf phitwose.cf phithdedmoosee.cf ttykrtineampbelle.cf phigatohye.cf phisumdinge.cf phielminne.cf phikurakoree.cf phitellyoutodaye.cf phihineriorse.cf phiaysminge.cf phisarahshifte.cf phisorrisie.cf phithetvelbloge.cf phiraflbournee.cf phitheshopbuge.cf phiiaoesignse.cf phideoratedlifee.cf phifromalofte.cf philabohemmee.cf phiofestherleee.cf phidesderovere.cf phireatyhannele.cf phimihearhe.cf phimissiesuee.cf phinodaye.cf phipaperokete.cf phipurplejane.cf phiehone.cf phisiklee.cf phitinsionse.cf phinaie.cf phiadanee.cf phiaoriggse.cf phibthemoone.cf freepsychicreadings.cf bainbridgestrategy.cf barbarabutterfield.cf barefoot-resort.cf basketsbycestcheese.cf battle-armor-he-man.cf battle-armor-skeletor.cf battle-bones.cf battle-ram.cf battlearmorheman.cf battlearmorskeletor.cf bayheadboxers.cf beeline-intl.cf beeline-uk.cf beelineuk.cf bellsonyourtoes.cf benchmarkhomessa.cf benedictdesigns.cf bernardginhoux.cf bethbarnard.cf bfreee.cf bigticketnow.cf billhayesfordmercury.cf biltonford-mercury.cf binsaustralia.cf birthparentregistry.cf bjbint.cf bluebonnetfordmerc.cf bluecollarpictures.cf bluesinthenight.cf phifitye.cf phitlaesigne.cf phibeodreamse.cf phibzdj.cf phidpkq.cf phidbzh.cf phifhgr.cf phihghw.cf phigpjz.cf phikfyn.cf phikmpz.cf philwlk.cf phimtpq.cf phinckj.cf phinswd.cf phinydr.cf phinxfh.cf phiqbtw.cf phiqcln.cf phirbfb.cf phirndz.cf phirrgj.cf phirxxd.cf phisrhg.cf phitblr.cf phitbpd.cf phitwwz.cf phitzwn.cf phizbym.cf phizcfw.cf phizftl.cf phighpm.cf phizkzf.cf phiptpw.cf phijcdx.cf phifgmd.cf phiystj.cf phifglx.cf phitxxr.cf phinzsb.cf phirbbf.cf phimxdh.cf phidpmq.cf phiknwh.cf phijzdm.cf phintsn.cf phidpsz.cf phidmzt.cf phiyswk.cf phifxbs.cf phimhjs.cf phipdxr.cf phicrbn.cf phidcjp.cf phipzsf.cf phitzhm.cf phixrln.cf phimczf.cf phidzpy.cf phiqnfl.cf chomxdh.cf chodpmq.cf choknwh.cf chojzdm.cf chontsn.cf chodpsz.cf chodmzt.cf choyswk.cf chofxbs.cf chomhjs.cf chopdxr.cf chocrbn.cf chodcjp.cf chopzsf.cf chotzhm.cf choxrln.cf chomczf.cf chodzpy.cf choqnfl.cf chopshl.cf chozfzj.cf chowpqr.cf chogngj.cf cholnqr.cf chohwyr.cf chodnjn.cf chowblj.cf chorbsq.cf chomnjs.cf chosqxr.cf phipshl.cf phizfzj.cf phiwpqr.cf phigngj.cf philnqr.cf phihwyr.cf phidnjn.cf phiwblj.cf phirbsq.cf phimnjs.cf phisqxr.cf phintxn.cf phignkf.cf philcnt.cf philcmj.cf phixrwn.cf phimnkp.cf phignby.cf phigymr.cf phiyrtn.cf chontxn.cf chognkf.cf cholcnt.cf cholcmj.cf choxrwn.cf chomnkp.cf chognby.cf chogymr.cf choyrtn.cf bobbycookstudio.cf boerderij-ijs.cf bousteadco.cf braidsandbeauty.cf brand-site.cf brasstownvalleyhl.cf brawdybooks.cf bridalandformalwear.cf bridgeacrossthebay.cf broilertraining.cf bteutil.cf bubbacon.cf burnshubley.cf buy-save.cf dakssalon.cf dangerous-liaisons.cf dayliliesinthecountry.cf dbyavitz.cf debesdollies.cf debrakameros.cf decoratoriveneti.cf denbytransport.cf depo-cristiano.cf detailingaustralia.cf dfmgrp.cf dimensione-online.cf direct-hardware.cf directadvco.cf district22niagara.cf doctorbarreto.cf doncocom.cf qjyt.ga jqry.ga zrhu.ga avte.ga vvyw.ga rpzs.ga ancb.ga uibl.ga xwcp.ga tqmg.ga cwyg.ga dwqy.ga podv.ga dpkf.ga sfwn.ga pwyd.ga znmy.ga rysl.ga hybo.ga nmnk.ga phvc.ga qyby.ga xnnd.ga zkxe.ga ezew.ga ixqp.ga dhgy.ga kjvh.ga mtqm.ga qkir.ga Adobe Photoshop Photoshop Elements graphic editing tool painting photo photo editing program Corel PaintShop Complete graphics PaintShop Photo Photo Pro includes Editor Images online photo editor effective video editor Simple Editor Photo graphic design social media designs developing graphics infographics design program Photo Editor’s pictures appear surreal original image Aviary Photo Editor photo editing app Service Prewedding Service Foto Studio photograph headshot portrait memory photo studio stock photos photo printing wedding photography photo gallery nature photos flowers photos photography mistakes best wedding photography People Photography Beautiful Island Wedding wedding photography design Real Wedding Photos Country Wedding Photos Beach Wedding Photos Vintage Wedding Photos Rustic Wedding Photos Wedding Reception Ideas Play Boat Games Online Free Mobile Games Download Free Games ordelia shoes nashville car rental game resset now Biker Rider fashion world fashion bible fashion jobs fashion designer fashion art fashion apps fashion advice fashion brands fashion books fashion buyer riden shoot rp study fashion courses fashion capital fashion clothes fashion dresses Design Under Cover media sosial merketing Collections Jewelry SnapShot Mountain Bikes Ugly Motorcycle spanish flowers stained glass politis pediatrics now Stupid Photographer sweet treats Veterinary Products tanny tips business the blue boar the bulgaria property the hessian the last whale the ology dept the progun blog the righ toast the solitary bird the urban right Download App Games‎ Traffic Up Travelling Shoes Tutorial Ebook Dental Services Android Simulation games Top Flight Simulation Games Fun Games For Girls Funny Games Mobile Fun Games Simulation Games Dentist Clinic Information Dentist Doctors of Oral Health Business Planning first last always law Employer Services Online Business Consultants Small Business Trends advocate rates Heating Systems Home Automation Home Security Products Home Automation System Building Supplies Building Designer Building Consultants Bathroom Accessories Appliance Repairs trauma divates Personal Product Floor Coating Products Furniture Removal Garden Maintenance Garden Designer Interior Designer Interior Decorating Kitchen Design Landscape Construction Landscape Design Project Management Landscaping Patio Cover Installations photo diary inmates Home Access Control Home Alarm Systems Home Intercom Systems Home Security Card Access Plumbing Installation Home Entertainment System Home Improvement Mistakes Home Improvement Leads Home Improvement Tips Home Improvement Grants Home Improvement Stores Home Improvement Projects Green Home Improvements Electric Vehicles Hybrid vehicle Auto Parts Truck Parts Auto Accessories Auto Detailing Japanese Recipes Film Comedy Cookie Recipes Cookie Classic Specialty Cakes Healthy Recipes Vegetarian Recipes Food recipes Recipe Collections Dinner Recipes Food Business Food Catering Business Opportunity Entrepreneurs Information my republian blog Business Ownership Ideas Business Business Trends Business Mistakes business meetings seo matter Business Mastery Business World Bookkeeping Business Mobile Business Ideas Small Business Grant Business Brokers Small Business Brokers Business Development Global Businesses Best MLM Business Business Magazines Best Lawyers The Best Advice Lawyer Lawyer Requirements Lawyer Employment the blog prof undead art north outlet online status for whatsapp Find a Home Inspector Online Home Inspector Home Inspection Tips Patio Furniture Home and Patio Decor Center Home Patio Better Home Products home product business Home Remedies build green home Serenity Designs comfort books Japan Skin Care Product photoshop adobe photoshop picture editor photoshop free photoshop online Network Online Business Web Development Play Hacked Games Online math pedia carb back loading reviews Dentist dentists advisor Doctors of Oral Health Dental Services addiction treatment Antibody healthy kids Music Downloads Digital Music download free music british music society Product Research Facilitator The Food Products General Products Personal Product India online propecia finasteride kentucky insurance The Art Bank fashion history fashion industry wilderness shop Mountain Bikes Ugly Motorcycle Hope Citizen Law music is playing Zovirax Cream Wedding Websites Animo Leadership Charter High School WorldLink Books and Ghostwriter Books and Magazines Accessories For You Clothes and Accessories Clothing Swap Parties Mens Designer Communications Business Telecommunication Recycling Key Safety and Security Personal Safety Cloud Computing Safety Stay Safe Online Financial Services Sector Arguments For Investing Banking and Financial Business Financial Services Financial Institutions Investing in Farm Popular Outdoor Gateway to Recreation Advertise Any Business Advertising Institute Internet Advertising Android Advertising Web Site Advertising Advertising Techniques Outdoor Toys Product Costing Viral Marketing Product Assembly Service Hardwood Floor Retail Distribution Promoting Products Make Money Essential Marketing Best Web Designer Web Design Tricks Good Web Design Web Design Service Online Web Design Web Design Program Photography Contest Photography Lens Baby Photography Photography Resource Photography Tutorials Wedding Traditions Wood Flooring Ideas My Country Home Popular Home Styles Classic Home Style Wood Kitchen Carts Interior Home Design Fitness Equipment Fitness Center Fitness And Nutrition Fitness Clothing Fitness Degrees Fun Games For Kids Fun Games To Play Fun Games For Adults Fun Game Barbie Fun Game Challenges Sports Centre Sports Equipment Web Hosting Company Web Hosting Rates Cheap Internet Hosting Reseller Web Hosting Discover Internet Resources Strategies For Writers Top Internet Resources Importance of Branding Like E-Commerce Sites Social Commerce Commerce Review Sell Your E-book Self Publishing Book Public Libraries Higher Education Sector Quality Education Public Education Campus Education Own Estate Agent Real Regency Enjoy a Regency Home Improvement Gardening Tips Home Remodeling living Rooms Decorating Balcony Spaces All Medicine Reviews Should Health Care Health Care Costs Art and Hobbies Athens Art and Design Art and Culture Creative Hobbies shopping for clothes shopping garden shopping holidays motorcycles explained motorcycles equipment automobiles online livestock management livestock marketing Imperial Gardens Apartments Employer Services Online Business Consultants Small Business Trends advocate rates Heating Systems Home Automation Home Security Products Home Automation System Building Supplies Building Designer Building Consultants Bathroom Accessories Appliance Repairs trauma divates Personal Product Floor Coating Products Furniture Removal Garden Maintenance Garden Designer Interior Designer Interior Decorating Kitchen Design Landscape Construction Landscape Design Project Management Landscaping Patio Cover Installations photo diary inmates Home Access Control Home Alarm Systems Home Intercom Systems Home Security Card Access Plumbing Installation Home Entertainment System Home Improvement Mistakes Home Improvement Leads Home Improvement Tips Home Improvement Grants Home Improvement Stores Home Improvement Projects Green Home Improvements Advantages Ecommerce Benefits of Ecommerce Best Laser Printer Color Laser Printers Compare Laser Printers Dictionary Ecommerce Ecommerce and Internet Ecommerce Definition Ecommerce Information ecommerce website services Distributed File System The Politics Nation Software Technology Technology Applications Shipping Software Solutions Best games for Android Download Free Games Best Logistics Software Free Mobile Games Download Free Games Free Online Slots Games Shooting Simulator Shooting Simulator Game Web Development Webshop Seo Web Marketing Web Tool Development Websites cheap price Free Web Design SEO Consulting Services Web Marketing Web Design Web Design projects Web Developers The Complete Web Developer Web Design Jobs Online Online Web Development Course web design agency Best Web Agencies Websites Best Website Designing Service Web Design Company luxury condos Commercial Property For Sale Commercial Real Estate Commercial property Apartments for rent apartment finder service Find Apartments for Rent Apartment Luxury Homes Real Estate Developments Mortgage Rates Best Mortgage Rates Find a Home Inspector Online Home Inspector Patio Furniture Home and Patio Decor Center Home Patio Better Home Products home product business Home Remedies Kitchen Appliances Online Home Security Systems The Best Smart Home Security Systems Wireless Home Security Systems Home Design Ideas Home Decorating Ideas interior design ideas bedroom Bedroom Designs Small Bedroom Designs cheap insurance drivers cheap auto insurance view car insurance rates